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新2正网平台出租:Will high inflation go away in 2023?

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High prices: People shop at a wet market in Petaling Jaya. In the first 10 months of this year, headline inflation increased by 3.3% y-o-y while core inflation was up 2.8%.

WHAT goes up must come down.

Broadly, the market expects global inflation levels will be much lower in 2023, as higher interest rates cool consumer demand and tame inflation amid increasing risks of economic recession in advanced economies.

The unacceptable and uncomfortable levels of inflation top the list of most worrisome issue confronted by governments, the public and central bankers in 2022.

Soaring inflation compelled policymakers to implement anti-inflation and price stabilisation measures to soften the blow of inflation on the public.

Inflation and rising cost of living have eroded the spending power of the low and middle-income households, leaving them with lower net disposable income.

Controlling inflation (price stability) is one of the mandates of central banks, forcing most central banks to raise interest rates aggressively to take off price pressures from both supply shocks and demand pressures, as well as to anchor inflation expectations.

Robust pent-up demand, reinforced by a strong recovery in the labour market and improved in wage growth, must be tamed.

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Recent inflation data suggest that consumer and producer prices have started to fall from their peak levels.

Inflation rate in the United States has slowed for four months in a row, from 9.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June 2022 to 7.7% in October, while that in eurozone has eased to 10% in November from a record high of 10.6% in October.

There are reasons for us to think that inflation is less a cause of concern in 2023.

Food, commodity and energy prices are cooling off from their peak levels, while the supply disruptions and labour market pressures are subsiding too.

Combined with the lagged effects of global central banks’ interest rate hikes to cool off demand, global inflation rates will likely cool throughout 2023. But the cool-down period will be long and slow.

Considering that the pace of retreat may be slow throughout the year, central banks could still continue with smaller rate of interest rate increases and will likely hold the interest rate levels longer throughout 2023.

But will China’s reopening lower inflation expectations? China’s rise in demand will help to firm up energy and commodity prices. In China’s domestic market, the presence of slack capacity can be restored to meet revived consumer demand.

While there could be supply disruptions due to the workers’ infection, over time, the smoothening of supply chains as well as follow-through demand and continuous supply would help to ease global inflation pressures.

How about Malaysia’s inflation trajectory in 2023? After peaking at 4.5% y-o-y in the third quarter (3Q) of 2022, headline inflation moderated for the second straight month to 4% in October – primarily due to the “electricity component” base effects, non-subsidised fuel and accommodation services.

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